Gold has risen for the tenth straight session to over $1,592 per ounce rallying over 7% in the last ten days. This rally matches a record set almost 40 years ago. Technical analysts are pointing to this strength as a reason they believe gold will go to over $1,700 per ounce by the end of the year. This is all happening during the summer which is typically a slow time for gold, a time when prices pull back and rally from here to the end of the year.
In the last two six month periods (July to December 2010 and January to May 2011) gold has risen between $250 and $275 per ounce, and some analysts feel that this will occur again from this July to December. Tom Fitzpatrick, CitiFX’s chief technical strategist, said “We would be looking at $1,700 to 1,750 an ounce in the next two to three months.”
Fitzpatrick further added that a technical channel that was formed starting in 2008 shows that $1,660 per ounce will be the next resistance point, which is a 4.3% gain. But with the current upward momentum that channel resistance point is rising fast.
Some analysts predictions based upon the fundamentals are suggesting a target of $1,735 per ounce as the next resistance level based on gold’s long-term rally from 2001 to 2008.
There is no question that gold is gaining momentum and is breaking new records. In an article published on CNBC.com today, according to the World Gold Council central banks have bought more gold so far this year than they did in all of 2010.
Juan Carlos Artigas, WGC’s investment research manager, said “In the same way, investors look to diversify their portfolios and find a way to manage risks effectively, gold has been one of the choices with central bankers especially in developing economies to create that balance.” “We believe that as a whole, central bank net buying is a result of the structural shift in reserve asset management.”
Central banks are part of what’s fueling the momentum in gold, and as they continue to buy prices will continue to rise. China only has 1.8% of its reserves in gold which is less than the worldwide average of 11%. In order to increase it’s holding to the 11% mark they would need to buy the equivalent of two years worth of worldwide production.
Look for the trend in gold to continue as governments around the world stoke fear around fiat monetary systems by continuing to print money as opposed to gold.
We believe that everyone deserves a properly developed strategy for financial safety.
Chief Market Analyst, ITM Trading