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Today’s Fed Rate Cut WON’T SOLVE ANYTHING (How Bad Will It Get?)

Taylor Kenney - ITM Trading Nov 7, 2024

The recent Federal Reserve rate cut sparks questions about the future of affordable housing and mortgage rates. As rates drop, will housing costs finally come down, or is there a longer road ahead? Discover what’s really impacting mortgage rates and the economy, including Treasury yields, inflation risks, and government spending. Learn why maintaining wealth protection with gold and silver is more relevant than ever.

 

CHAPTERS:

00:00 – Introduction: Rate Cut and Housing Affordability

00:35 – Why Mortgage Rates Aren’t Falling

01:39 – Inflation Risks and Economic Outlook

02:14 – The Federal Reserve’s Dilemma

02:45 – Inflation’s Slow Rise and Treasury Yields

03:20 – Labor Market Concerns and Job Growth

03:51 – The Role of Government Jobs in Job Numbers

04:26 – The Bigger Picture: Systemic Flaws and National Debt

05:26 – Why Gold and Silver Still Matter

06:34 – The Future of the Dollar and Rate Cuts

07:43 – Protecting Wealth Outside the System

TRANSCRIPTION:

00:00 – 00:35

Affordable housing and 3% mortgage rates — that’s what we’ve been promised. Today, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points. Is this the first step towards affordable housing and living, or is the road much longer ahead? Hi, everyone, I’m Taylor Kenney with ITM Trading. Thank you so much for being here. Obviously, it’s a huge week for news and there’s a lot to get into. But the big question everyone is wondering is, when will we be able to afford the cost of living again, especially housing, which more than a third of Americans feel completely shut out of due to the rising cost of homes and mortgage rates?

00:35 – 01:08

If you’ve been following the news, you know that President Trump has made a lot of promises around mortgage rates dropping. But in September, we saw something very interesting happening, a trend likely to continue. When the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points in September, many celebrated, expecting to see mortgage rates come down. But the opposite happened and could happen again — we could actually see mortgage rates go up. This isn’t because they’re responding to the Fed’s decision to cut rates again today; it’s because they’re actually more closely following the Treasury yields.

01:08 – 01:39

I found an article here, “If the Fed is Cutting Rates, Why Aren’t Mortgage Rates Falling?” It says, “Mortgage rates aren’t determined by the Fed. They’re heavily influenced by Treasury yields, which go up and down based on economic expectations, and the outlook for growth is strong.” Now, I don’t have to tell you what happened in the stock market over the last 48 hours. People are celebrating. I’m not here to ruin the party or rain on anyone’s parade, because optimism and hope are terrific. But ultimately, we still have a long, long way to go.

01:39 – 02:14

There’s a reason that these yields are going up. It’s not just economic growth; it’s not all peaches and cream. We’re also expecting to see inflation rise. A lot of President Trump’s promises have been around tax cuts, which could lead to deficit spending. Recently, he’s talked about getting the debt under control, but even tariffs could result in additional inflation. Inflation could come roaring back, which is why there are now rumors about the Federal Reserve potentially slowing their rate cuts in the future.

02:14 – 02:45

We are in a really tricky spot here, and as much as I know most of us out there don’t agree with the Federal Reserve’s decisions 99% of the time, I’ll be the first to admit they’re in a tough spot, though it’s a spot of their own making. Ultimately, if they continue to cut rates significantly, which President Trump has made clear he wants — when he left office, I believe rates were in the high twos, and he thought that was too high — so there’s probably a lot of pressure to cut rates. But if they cut rates too fast, inflation will skyrocket.

02:45 – 03:20

Inflation, as a friendly reminder today, never disappeared; it never went away. It’s just slowed in the rate it’s rising. Inflation is still happening. Prices are still going up, albeit at a slower rate. They never stopped; they never went down. And more likely than not, we’re never getting those prices back to what they were a couple of years ago. If anything, they’re going to continue to go up, which is why bonds are reacting the way they are, and therefore, rates are responding the way they are.

03:20 – 03:51

On the other hand, if the Federal Reserve doesn’t cut rates significantly, we also know there’s significant risk in the labor market. That’s a big concern for them. They see things slowing down, even as the media tries to make us believe that everything is fine and job numbers are normal. We know they’re not. Last month, we had only 12,000 new jobs created in the entire United States. If you dig deeper, those jobs aren’t coming from manufacturing, which lost over 40,000 jobs, or even from retail or the service sector. They’re coming from government services.

03:51 – 04:26

These jobs are funded by us, the taxpayers. And if taxpayer dollars don’t fund these job creations, what happens? Well, that’s where the deficit continues to grow. So, we have all these government jobs being created. Maybe they were necessary, but I have a suspicion they weren’t, and if they hadn’t been created, we might have had negative job growth. How would that have looked going into an election? Once those jobs stop, we might see the real picture of our economy, not the smoke and mirrors they’re giving us.

04:26 – 05:26

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: People make a lot of noise about the Fed rate cuts, but when you zoom out and look at the big picture, we’re still sitting on $36 trillion of national debt. We need oversight for banks running extreme risks with limited capital, and we have serious flaws in the system that need addressing. Some people say it’s too late for that, which might be true. But one way or another, today’s rate cut decision, while impactful, is small potatoes compared to the big picture.

05:26 – 06:34

I don’t want to be negative, especially when many are optimistic about our economy. But the $36 trillion remains. We are still inside this system, with the same threats that were there last week, still here today. The reasons why people bought gold and silver last month, last year, are still here. Nothing has changed. People buy gold and silver to protect their wealth outside of the system — the same system we are still in today.

06:34 – 07:43

The dollar might temporarily increase in value, but that won’t last. Rate cuts decrease the dollar’s value. The dollar, based on faith and credit of the U.S. government, might feel stronger now, but it will decline. That’s why those who hold true wealth ensure they have an insurance policy outside the system, because they know the threats are real.

07:43 – 08:17

If you don’t have a strategy or want a second opinion, talk to one of our expert analysts. They’re here to help people like you make sure you’re protected. You can call the number below or click the link in the description. And as always, if you have any questions or thoughts, please leave them in the comments. I love to read everything you write. Thank you so much for being here. I’m Taylor Kenney with ITM Trading, your trusted source for all things gold, silver, and lifelong wealth protection. Until next time.

 

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