Morgan Stanley has reemphasized its belief in copper, Silver and Gold, stating that they would clearly beat the other metals hands down. This declaration comes in the wake of the continuing surge in investor demand, the silver and gold being bolstered due to central bank purchases and supply deficits offer benefits for the metal being used in wires. According to a report published by on October 4, 2012, analysts Peter Richardson and Joel Crane say, “Central bank policies ensure conditions remain favorable for continued price appreciation for both gold and its cheaper proxy, silver.”
According to the expectations put forth by the bank authorities, the price of gold would be pegged at $1,683 per ounce in 2012, and would hit the $1,853 mark in 2013. Morgan Stanley retained its optimistic stand on lead, zinc, nickel and aluminum. According to the Standard & Poor’s index, commodities rose from by 11% in 2011. Gold rallied for the 12th year in a row as central banks joined investors in purchasing gold bullion with an aim to diversify assets. Gold reserves were added by Kazakhstan and Korea. Exchange traded product holdings also managed to do well.
According to Morgan Stanley, the expansionary monetary policies propounded by central bank proved to be a game changer for gold. “Central banks have further underpinned the likelihood of continued growth in investment demand by emphasizing their own liking for gold as a reserve portfolio asset,” said Morgan Stanley’s report. On September 19, 2012, the Bank of Japan stated that it would carry out a fund expansion for assets purchase. This comes after the announcement of a third of round of QE by America’s Federal Reserve.
As per Goldman, Gold; for immediate delivery traded at a price point of $1,788.91 in London and has maintained an average of $1,654.68 this year. According to the reports, average trading figures for copper are $3.63 per pound in 2012 and $3.90 in the following year. The futures of copper traded at a point of $3.8 and registered an average of $3.6 this year. According to Goldman Sachs, there would be high QE for copper on account of its strong fundamentals. Global industrial output growth has been pegged at 3.6% this year and is likely to be 4% next year.
Remarkably, China’s GDP dwindled to a low of 7.6% in the last quarter of 2012. Steps are being undertaken by policy makers to protect the economy as much as possible as it has been substantially damaged on account of the European debt crises. The Central Bank of China cut down on interest rates in July. This followed a lowering of LRRR as many as three times within the span of November to May.
According to the analysts, China’s growth has slowed well below comfort levels, and a further deterioration could lead to significant oversupply in the commodity markets. The downside risk of course is the euro zone debt crises and its affect on silver and gold.
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Chief Market Analyst, ITM Trading