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Is Anyone Paying Attention To The Economy?

Blog Dec 6, 2012

Now that the Euro zone has kicked the Greek crisis down the road, more than a few are left to ponder the future of the Economy and the Euro union. These views range from dour projections from the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), that the EU will be stuck in recession throughout 2013 and experiencing their own “lost decade,” to the likes of the Lisbon Council, based in Brussels and Berenberg Bank which describe the Euro zone as a better balanced and increasingly energetic economy.

Optimism can be a wonderful thing but politicians typically so abuse and torture it that it becomes truly something hideous.

Like most politicians the world over, the phrase “Hope for the best and plan for the worst” becomes “Hope for the best and plan for things to be even better, because nothing can possibly go wrong.” That attitude might even be comical but whenever our politicians make errors in judgment we are the one’s who pay for it.

Time for a reality check; things rarely go as planned and when politicians are involved something nearly always goes wrong.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, who thought the Euro zone would begin to recover in the later half of 2013, voiced caution on Friday that the crisis was not yet at an end and governments must secure their budgets and address account imbalances.

The continued recession in Spain, Italy and Portugal increase the risk that they will be drawn into a whirlpool of sinking revenues exceeding spending cuts which in turn drive down demand and output, yielding lower revenues.

Economists from Citi stated last week they anticipated the recession for the EU to continue into 2013 and 2014 and economic weakness to drag on.

One much discussed hazard is what might happen if reforms for welfare financing posed by France’s President Francois Hollande don’t pan out or if angry people take to the street in response. France’s valued AAA credit rating has recently suffered from a downgraded by both Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s.

The remaining credit rating company left with France on AAA standing is Fitch Ratings. They have stated that they would drop that grade if the country does not hit the deficit reduction goals and the economy doesn’t perform as needed.

There are those who believe France, with a huge, liquid debt market, benefits from an unspoken German promise to buy French bonds for the Euro zone states in the north that have lower debt to issue.

Jacques Delpla, a French economist and co-author of a plan to issue limited common Euro zone bonds, makes the argument that euro states’ debt will be more appealing in the next few years as inflating away economic problems becomes the norm in other nations.

“The whole of the world except Europe is going to inflate away its debt – the United States, Britain, Japan,” he said at a conference of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Is anyone in the United States, Britain, or Japan paying attention to the economy?

Sources & References In This Article

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