Watching the constant Economic Troubles of the United States is sometimes like viewing a yo-yo contest. It’s up, it’s down, then it goes into some odd gyration which you hope it will pull out of. This back and forth and up and down is quite evident in the ongoing Presidential/Congressional debate on the debt ceiling. It looms before us and the economy cringes. Some positive discussion takes place and the markets take courage. After some wrangling a stop gap measure is passed and the can gets a swift kick down the road. Whew! That was close. Is there a yo-yo trick called “Sequestration?” Sounds like some kind of medical procedure.
Depending on who you listen to the economy is rosy, on the verge of recession or already in one. John Silva, Chief Economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, NC, describes it as “a slow-motion situation.” He predicts the gross domestic product for the U.S. will grow at a measly 1.4 percent in the first quarter. “We are getting no momentum from holiday spending” he says. Further, since the end of the payroll tax cut we will probably see that have an austere impact on the spending habits of our countrymen.
On the other side of the recession question is Lakshman Achtuthan on ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) who contends that the country is currently in a recession and has been since July of 2012. The definition of a recession is a decline in economic activity that lasts for more than two consecutive quarters. It is a process of falling employment, wholesale/retail sales, industrial production and real income which ECRI maintains peaked in July.
With all the economic yo-yo tricks we see, one not to be left out is “Around-The-World”. This is seen in our global economy where what affects one country seems to have an impact on others.
My recollection of my own experience with yo-yo tricks is that things go along fine for a while but at some point the yo-yo gets away from me and it careens out of control and starts spinning sideways. The only thing left for me to do is wait for the yo-yo to stop spinning and untangle the string and re-wind it. It is looking increasingly like that is what is in store for us with our own economic troubles.