Insider that Predicted Trump Assassination Attempt Warns of Iran, More Danger Ahead of Election
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âIf it wasnât the work of a lone wolf, you could argue that they might try again,â says David Woo, former IMF economist and Wall Street strategist. He tells Daniela Cambone that the recent assassination attempt against Donald Trump may have been part of a conspiracy, which is why Trump chose JD Vance as his running mate. According to Woo, Trump was trying to send a message: if something happens to him, they would have to deal with JD Vance, who is seen as a ‘mini Trump.’ Woo also states that the U.S. economy could face a recession when the AI bubble bursts, noting that the stock market’s recent strong performance was largely driven by the hype surrounding AI. Watch the interview to hear more about his insights on geopolitical risks, the economic outlook, and gold.
CHAPTERS:
00:00 Israel under attack
4:22 Consequences of U.S. election
11:43 Iran/Israel conflicts
15:03 Stock market reality check
23:24 Recession
27:38 Gold
31:31 Donald Trump assassination
37:46 Harrisâ VP pick
TRANSCRIPT FROM VIDEO:
00:00
Iran is not afraid of any country or person for that matter, except for one person, Donald J. Trump. Iran is scared shitless of Trump. Trump is even crazier than the Iranians. Trump was the guy who ordered the assassination of Soleimani, I mean the most highly ranked general ever in Iranian history. Trump was the guy who imposed huge sanctions on Iran. If you’re Iran, you’re sitting there, you’re two weeks away from a nuclear breakout, you might be thinking to yourself,
00:30
If Trump is going to return as president, even if you think that there’s any chance, you might decide to make a run for nuclear immunity before the U.S. election. The only country that could stop Iran from going for it.
00:51
Hi everyone, Dangella Kamboni here for ITM Trading. I’m just back from vacation, feeling refreshed, recharged, ready to go and provide you with incredible content and interviews. But before we get to that today, I just wanted to remind you and urge you to book a Calendly appointment with one of my incredible colleagues at ITM Trading. Why? Well, you saw what happened.
01:15
during that global stock meltdown last week. But what is resilient in the face of all of this? Gold. It is the ultimate wealth preservation tool. And that’s why I urge you all to book a strategy session where one of my colleagues will help you build a wealth preservation strategy centered around owning physical metals. It’s free, it’s educational, and I strongly urge you to waste no more time and get to it and book that calendar.
01:45
All right, let’s get to today’s interview. Softening US labor market, declining consumer confidence in 2024, weakening retail sales and disappointing restaurant industry trends are signaling a cautious outlook as we head into the US election in November. But what’s gonna be the ultimate thing that will bite the economy in the butt? As my next guest says, please welcome back to the show, David Wu.
02:13
Host of David Wu Unbound. David, so good to be back with you. Welcome back to the DLN show, humanITM. No, it’s great. Great to be on your show. So of course I want to talk the economy. Of course we’re going to talk the economy with you, but you know we’re also going to get into politics and I’m just going to cue this up because during the assassination attempt of Donald Trump, David.
02:43
you immediately came to mind, because folks that watched your last interview with me, and this is why it’s so important to watch channels like ours, is you had predicted a few months ago that there would be an assassination attempt on Donald Trump’s life. If Trump continues to run like way ahead of basically Biden, that will be a good thing for the market. I mean, to the extent that they’re less likely to do some really nasty things like, you know,
03:12
assassination and all that kind of stuff. Basically, if Trump has a big lead. I know, I know the last time you mentioned assassination as well, I was like, well. I’m not the only person talking about it now. So I know I feel very free. Everybody’s talking about this now as a possibility, right? I mean, for me, I’m not saying this just to scare anybody. I’m just saying that this is, I mean, this is a tail risk. You asked me a tail risk, right? I think there’s a 10% chance something like this happened. By the way, I think Trump probably also thinks that.
03:40
This is the reason why he has not nominated VP. Imagine that tomorrow, okay, you wake up in the morning, breaking news, Trump has been shot, okay? And the second part of the news is that, is he was shot by a lone gunman who basically took his life on the spot, okay? So no way to implicate anybody else in the whole entire thing. At that point, you ask yourself, is Trump dead at that point?
04:08
or he’s being basically taken to the hospital, he might recover. And of course, you don’t have a crystal ball, but you obviously have very good intuition. So we’re going to get more thoughts from you on where you think this narrative is going. But first and foremost, how are you doing? I’m doing as well as it’s possible, given the circumstances. I’m in Israel, as you know, and we are bracing for an attack.
04:37
And I think actually it could come as early as this week. And I think actually there’s definitely a disconnect between Wall Street and the Middle East right now in terms of like, you know, the possibility of something like this happening because if there’s gonna be an attack, let me tell you this, like everything you might take for granted, you know, as a given about the investment thesis, this and that, it will be all thrown up into midair. And I can tell you that this is-
05:05
This is why actually for me personally, you know, I’ve actually been doing a lot of errands today because we’re trying to, I even ordered some dog food, extra dog food, just in case. I know you did a segment on this, David, where you basically said that Wall Street is ignoring the Iranian threat. Why do you think that is? You know, you know, you know, the famous story about, you know, basically, the cry wolf, basically,
05:32
You know problem, right? I mean like, you know, I mean since October 7 there have been many instances where Everybody was crying wolf and then wall street drove up basically oil drove down stocks Basically anticipation of world war three in the middle east But until now they haven’t happened and this is why people don’t want to get full into Thinking that this is going to happen now this time, but you know what? I’ve always said like, you know what? This is the problem with you know
06:01
depending too much on history to make predictions because like every time, this time is very different. I mean, let me just tell you why I think this time is so different actually. Because this has a lot to do with the US election, actually, you might find it interesting enough. If you recall, the last time we faced a similar situation was back in April. On April 1, Israel assassinated an Iranian general in Damascus. And on April 13, Iran…
06:30
retaliated by attacking Israel with about 400 missiles and drones and so on and so forth. Let me tell you, during those two weeks, I was telling my clients, let’s not panic. Please fade this one. This is going to be just a political theater. Why was I so convinced that last time it was not the real thing? It was because, guess what? Joe Biden back then was still running for president, if you recall.
06:59
And therefore, Joe Biden had no, I mean, Joe Biden was going to do everything possible to make sure that oil prices didn’t spike. Therefore, he had every incentive to basically prevent a regional war, which was the reason why he and his team spent two weeks on the phone with the Iranians trying to orchestrate a face-saving movie, okay, political theater.
07:27
to basically calm down the Iranians while basically not getting the Israelis to overreact. So from that point of view, I would argue the fact that Biden was still basically in the race, therefore he cared more than anything else, he cared about the US economy more than anything else, the US stock market more than anything else, he basically made sure that things did not basically come apart at the same time. Unfortunately, I don’t know if that’s fortunately or not fortunately,
07:57
Biden this time is very different because Biden is no longer running for president. And then I would argue, like, you know, in fact, I’m not saying that he, and obviously we all know, like, you know, he’s quite bitter. I mean, there have been many, many reports about the fact that he’s quite bitter for, you know, about being forced out. I mean, one minute he was the presidential nominee and another minute he was thrown off the bus. Basically, that’s what really happened to him. So from that point of view, I cannot imagine. I mean, let’s put it this way.
08:27
I don’t believe that the same incentive he had back in April to do everything to prevent a regional war is still true. In fact, you could argue he probably doesn’t care if Kamala Harris were to go on to beat Trump or not, because in fact, if Kamala Harris were to lose to Trump, people might start saying, oh, wow, it was such a mistake to have forced out Biden.
08:52
So therefore, I don’t think there is no evidence so far that US is trying to hold back the Iranians. Certainly, there is no evidence that the US is trying to talk Iranians into, again, another orchestrated, highly, basically, stage attack on Israel that would avoid a regional war. In fact, the only thing the US has been doing of late is that sending more and more, basically, naval vessels to the Middle East. The latest we heard this morning was basically.
09:21
submarine, capable of carrying basically ballistic missiles. So what I’m telling you is that this is why the equation has changed. What has also changed is this. Again, this is where the US election is already having many unintended consequences. Think about this. The big story three weeks ago was the fact that Anthony Blinken, who I would argue is the biggest Iran appeaser in Washington.
09:50
came out publicly and admitted that Iran is only two weeks away from developing nuclear weapons. Again, Andy Blinken, you could Google this, you could look it up, Andy Blinken three weeks ago basically admitted that Iran is two weeks away from securing nuclear weapons. Now, let me tell you, that is definitely the expert opinion. He’s not saying anything new. I mean, in fact, the consensus in the nuclear community is that Iran is probably about one month away.
10:19
from getting their hands on five nuclear bombs, in fact. Now, you might say, well, so what does that mean? Like, let’s put it this way. You know, Iran is not afraid of any country or person for that matter, except for one person. And that person’s name is Donald J. Trump. Iran is scared shitless of Trump. And the reason is because, you know what? Trump is even crazier than the Iranians, okay?
10:48
Trump was the guy who ordered the assassination of Soleimani, I mean, the most highly ranked general ever in Iranian history. Trump was the guy who imposed huge sanctions on Iran. Therefore, if Iran, just think about this, if you’re Iran, you’re sitting there, you’re two weeks away from a nuclear breakout, you might be thinking to yourself, like, if Trump is going to return as president, even if you think that there’s any chance, you might decide to
11:17
make a run for nuclear immunity before the US election. And that’s what this is all about, because the only country that could stop Iran from going for it is, of course, Israel. And I think that was the message that Bibi Netanyahu brought to US Congress when he addressed Congress two weeks ago. Like he’s basically said in so many words, without spelling everything out, like, you know, we’ll do what it takes to stop Iran, but just give us the weapons.
11:45
And I think from that point of view, this is why this time around, in basically August 2024, you’re looking at a totally unpredictable situation. And I think a very dangerous situation because everything’s at stake because in many ways, again, the US election means that Iran has an incentive to go for nuclear immunity. And because Biden has been forced out of the race, he may not have the same incentive to stop the war.
12:15
from basically completely breaking up. So I think from that point of view, this is where it’s actually very interesting because I think a lot of Americans, they just think, oh wow, there’s an election coming. They don’t really see how the US election is so important for the world that it’s having already many, many consequences even before the election day.
12:36
Let me ask you this David. Let’s say if you are correct, and I hope I hope you’re wrong and I Iran Will attack, you know possibly as early as this week What’s next
12:52
Well, let me tell you what happens after. Yeah, what happens after? I mean, Israel will have to retell you. I mean, let’s by the way, just so that, you know, I don’t know when you’re going to be releasing this video, but I’ve been saying this for a few days now. And just when I’m old this morning, we had new news. The Israeli government has reversed its prediction. And this morning, basically issue, you know, you could call it a guidance to Israeli citizen, basically saying that they now believe that Iran could attack even before this Thursday. OK.
13:22
So that’s number one. So the Israeli government is issuing guidance to Israeli citizens to basically get ready and prepare themselves. And this is why I was doing, you know, basically I was buying extra dog food actually this morning. And at the same time, we also had news this morning that Hezbollah, Iran’s basically proxy in Lebanon, has vacated its headquarters in Beirut. OK. Presumably going underground in anticipation of Israeli attack and so on and so forth.
13:52
And just yesterday, a member of the Iranian parliament, who’s also a member of the national security, basically came out and basically said that an Iranian attack on Israel could last between three to four days. Moreover, the head of Hamas, the butcher of Gaza, Sinwa, who was expected to attend this new round of negotiation with Israel and Egypt, basically this Thursday, just this morning he said, I’m not coming.
14:20
So what I’m saying is that there are a lot of telltale signs that things are starting to basically move in a not so pleasant direction. Yes. So I think the point here is that they’ve run with the hit of Israel, and then I think there’s no doubt they’re going to come in a very big way, in my humble opinion. Okay? And Israel will have to retaliate. Okay? And then if there’s retaliation involved, like literally, like, I mean, let’s put it this way. Okay?
14:49
Oil price obviously will skyrocket right away because let’s think about it this way. Under Joe Biden, the US stopped enforcing existing sanctions on Iranian oil export. As a result, Iranian oil export, which two years ago was only at about 150,000 barrels per day, is now at 1.5 million barrels per day.
15:18
Even a fraction of that would to all of a sudden be taken off the market. Okay. I mean, oil prices could go to 90, 100, 120, who knows? I don’t know. Iran might even decide to, if Israel were to attack Iran, Iran might even try to retaliate by sabotaging Saudi oil fields, who knows? Okay, anything’s possible. But what I’m saying to you is that I think this is actually a big deal right now, because especially given there are signs of a slowdown in the US, the US stock market had a…
15:47
Pretty meaningful drop. I think you know in any event, you know, like all we need is another shock and then here we go Okay
15:59
Let’s I’m happy you brought up that shock because as I was saying, I just came back from vacation and you know, here I am overseas, David, I’m watching the global meltdown. I’m watching what’s happening to the Dow, to the S and P, to the NASDAQ, thinking this is it, you know, and by the time I get on the plane, take the flight home back to New York city, everything was okay again. It’s like, poof, all the problems disappeared. I’ll be like, wait,
16:27
What happened in those nine hours? I was flying, you know, back to New York city. My question to you, David is what, what, how did they get the rebound and what are they going to punch again? I mean, this is obviously not the reality. And I know you speak so much of this, of the disconnect between the real economy and what’s happening in the SMP, but what is happening? Who’s waving that, that wizardry?
16:57
One, the Fed? No, I think ironically, you know what it is? I would say retail investors. You know, it’s actually very interesting because you know, retail investors, they don’t matter until they do, okay? And I think, you know, there’s no doubt, like I think on Monday last week or Tuesday, by the way, I just so that you know, like I was short the market, I was very long with it.
17:27
And then I closed out my position literally like I think in 11 a.m. Basically, New York time on Monday At the basically high so it was great. Okay, so from that point of view, there’s no question I think you know We also have to take the price action loss with a bit of grain of salt because a lot of it had to do with Japan And I was actually I was trading the yen the whole entire way actually one of the reasons why i’m up almost 10% year to date for my institutional
17:55
you know, basically our portfolio is because like I was long the yen, I knew this was coming, but also by Monday I realized that the yen, you know, basically a surge was, you know, nearing, you know, the ninth inning. So I took profit on my long yen position, at the same time I took profit on my long VIX position, and that turned out to be very good timing, okay? So I think from that point of view, what happened last week,
18:22
Now, you might say, well, okay, fine. You know, you say, well, okay, fine. You look at the chart, if all you have in front of you is basically chart of VIX, you say, well, VIX exploded on Monday and then collapsed. Right? Normally, that pattern of a spike in VIX followed by collapse is a sign of complete capitulation.
18:44
And you could basically argue that this should be an all clear sign that you should now be basically buying stocks with both bids because like everybody’s out But that would be a mistake Because there there was absolutely no cooperation That there was actually, you know a capitulation event In fact, if anything if you actually look at other indicators such as you know, the advance and decline ratio I mean all we had was a little bit of rotation
19:12
Actually out of tech into everything else. Okay So if you look at the dense decline line of S&P 500 and compare with let’s say what happened in April When we last had a major correction, it looks completely different. This was nothing if you look at the AII You know basically these individual investor sentiment survey I mean it never even dropped below zero by the way last week, which is quite remarkable, right? If you look at you know, the CFTC futures data that were released on Friday
19:41
It was fascinating. Yeah, the market had gone from short yen to now long yen, but the market was every bit as long as S&P, Russell 2000, and Nasdaq as the week before or the week before that. So what I’m telling you is this. I mean, you know, like, the reason is very simple. I think, you know, I’m of the view, and you probably know, like, I’m very much of the view that, you know, that generative AI has created a bubble. And this bubble…
20:11
has in some sense, no question, this bubble has extended the US economic expansion by driving up X spending and by driving up stock market valuation. And the General AI has actually in many ways ushered in a period of virtual circle for the US economy, boosting productivity growth, driving up stocks, and then offsetting the interest rate hikes by the Fed and so on and so forth, a good thing.
20:40
But the premise of this generated AI, which is that this is gonna be a profit machine that basically is going to basically, create $4 trillion of profit in 10 years, okay? For basic companies around the world, it’s gonna add productivity growth to everybody. That basically premise is starting to be basically calling into question. And I think this is the most important. Listen, every bubble, I mean, bubble of this magnitude.
21:10
It’s not gonna burst overnight. I’m not gonna, I’ve seen many bubbles in my life. Bubbles don’t just basically like, especially such a height bubble. And by the way, this is the interesting thing. If you think about this, AI has been around for a very long time, I mean for at least 20 years. I’ve been basically using AI for the last 20 years. You ask yourself, what does basically, what makes generative AI unique? What makes it unique is the fact that, you know what? Yeah.
21:38
So it’s designed to create content like text, video, audience, and so on and so forth. Things that are easy to relate to. So as a result, generally I don’t know about its virtue. Its only virtue so far is that it’s easy to relate to and it’s user friendly. Any basically idiot can basically use it, so to speak. You know what, this is the reason why I got so much hype. Because it was accessible, everybody can understand what it’s trying to do and so on and so forth.
22:07
But I think that, you know, but it makes no sense that since Chow GBT was launched in November 30th, 2022, in the last century of the two and a half years, the market capitalization of S&P 500 has gone up $10 trillion, even though earnings pressure has been flat during this entire period. All this because people think that General AI is gonna be basically like minting gold, okay? I think that…
22:37
Finally has been called into question people are starting to wake up to the realization That you know two and a half years into this how come nobody has actually come up with a killer app How come basically like you know we’re having seen a real significant pick up in terms of revenue I mean this year come us is gonna spend 300 billion dollars on AI chips But revenue that could be attributed to the AI is probably no more than 30 billion dollars Okay
23:06
That’s what we’re talking about right here. So I think this is why I think the AI bubble has burst. Okay, and I think what happened last week, sure, you know, you’ve got those retail guys been waiting to buy basically Magnificent 7 on the cheap, that kind of thing. You know, the stock market went down, came in and bought. But again, you know, if you’re into basically technical analysis, this is earlier wave, you know, basically the fourth wave, you know, market has a bit of an impulsive recovery.
23:37
But I think we’re actually very close to the beginning of the fifth wave, which means down. So I think the real calculation is yes to come. Down. Down, yeah. Right, so it was just a little prelude, a little taste of pain to come, David. I personally think so. I mean, because again, because the hype is over. The hype is over because even mainstream media is starting to publicize the limitations of generated AI.
24:06
So even retail guys are gonna sit home and basically read about, oh wow, maybe general AI is not the penicillium. Okay, that’s the cure all. That’s gonna make everybody rich. And I think that is gonna be a problem. Let me ask you this. I know you did a whole segment on recession. I wanna get your thoughts on where are we at with this? Because like you mentioned 12 months ago.
24:32
You know, the yield curve was signaling a recession. Everyone was in agreement. All the smart people in the room, yeah, we’re definitely gonna get a recession. We’re getting a recession. Now, yes, there’s some that would argue, well, we are in a recession, but technically not in a recession. Is it coming? Is it something we still need to fear? I think the probability is going up. There’s no question about that, because again, the reason why we didn’t get a recession last year.
25:01
was because of generated AI. I mean, honestly, that was the reason, because generally, I just think about this, right? If for nothing else, you just had an increase of $10 trillion in market cap, that’s an increase of $10 trillion in terms of wealth, positive wealth, okay? And so as a result, basically, who care if the Fed was raising interest rates? Like, people didn’t feel it, okay? If you had that kind of basically,
25:30
appreciation in the wealth for Americans. So basically, as I said before, a year ago, I mean, by the way, I was not in the recession camp last year because of AI. I understood what was going on. But again, most economists, I think in a lot of macro investors, because they didn’t understand this AI story, they-
25:52
We’re still basically in this, okay, inflation, interest rates, and then economy always responds to interest rates and that kind of thing. So they didn’t understand how AI bought time for the expansion and has pushed out the recession. But now I think the AI bubble having burst, it becomes a very different story. So I think from that point of view, the economy becomes vulnerable just because, and now the question is, because I think.
26:21
I think the whole AI sell off definitely is not over. I could see NASA going down another 10%, 15%, maybe even 20% from here. And I think that will represent a big shock, I think, to the system. And then on top of that, if we have any kind of geopolitical risk blowing up, or for that matter, US election risk. We haven’t talked about that, the US election. I think the fact that basically the race is now.
26:49
getting closer and closer, that creates uncertainty. And if the stock market ignored the election early in the year because everybody was so convinced that Trump was going to win and Trump was good for the stock market, clearly this is much less clear cut now. So I think you’ve got to think, what is going to be basically there to protect the stock market? Yeah, sure, the Fed can do it. But I don’t think the Fed is going to cut 50 basis points without NASDAQ going down.
27:18
another 10% between now and basically the next Fed meeting in September. So to answer the question I brought up at the start, what could bite the market in the butt? It’s AI for you. AI is the elephant in the room. There’s no doubt. I think it’s AI. I think the AI absolutely, I think the AI as a pillar of the economy, okay, now only has two legs to stand on. Okay? And that is wobbling. And then…
27:47
And I think this is going to be a big problem. I think on top of that, I think you’ve got geopolitical headwinds, you have political headwinds, and I don’t see anything out on the horizon that’s going to be able to build us out. OK. So like, yeah, the Fed might cut, but then again, you know what? The market is already pricing a lot. I mean, right now, it’s like, wow, the market is pricing like four cuts before, between the hell, the end of the year. So from that point of view, like, you know.
28:17
The Fed will only deliver these cuts, in fact, if the stock market would keep going down. So from that point of view, there’s nothing to give in the system. And I think when there’s no place to go, the market typically goes down, in my view. Well, when there’s no place to go, let’s talk about the market.
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