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🚨 100% Loan Losses Loom as Fed Shrinks Balance Sheet- Banks on the Brink

The Daniela Cambone Show Sep 1, 2025

“The Fed playing God with the US economy and trying things they weren’t sure would work,” says Chris Whalen, chairman of Whelan Global Advisors. In today’s interview with Daniela Cambone, Whalen criticizes the Fed’s unconventional monetary policies—particularly the low interest rates and quantitative easing implemented during COVID. Now, the Fed is reversing some of that policy, shrinking its balance sheet and reducing liquidity in the system. Chris warns that the Fed is again experimenting with high-stakes economic levers, creating uncertainty in money markets and increasing the potential for stress in banks and the financial system. “We’re seeing 100% loss on those [commercial real estate (CRE) and apartment building] loans when they default,” he adds.

As for protecting investors, he stresses caution and opportunism: “Look for stability and income—treasuries, preferred stocks, reliable dividend payers. Gold must be a core part of your holdings.”

Could we be on the edge of another Lehman moment? Chris Whalen, a seasoned Wall Street insider, warns that banks are now staring at 100% loan losses in commercial real estate while the Federal Reserve continues to recklessly shrink its balance sheet. The implications for the U.S. banking crisis and for your retirement savings couldn’t be more urgent.


Central Banks Choose Gold Over Treasuries

For the first time since 1996, foreign central banks hold more gold than U.S. Treasuries. That’s not a fluke — it’s a sign of collapsing trust in the dollar.

  • Global central banks have been aggressively buying gold for a decade.

  • Gold is now accepted as collateral for swaps, no longer a “dead asset.”

  • U.S. governance failures and runaway deficits are accelerating the dollar’s decline.

Whalen warns this shift marks the end of the dollar’s “special role” as the world’s reserve asset. We’re heading toward a multilateral currency system — with gold at its core.


Fed Policy = Banking Time Bomb

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet reduction is creating hidden risks that few in mainstream finance want to admit.

  • Banks enjoyed “free money” during COVID when rates were forced to zero.

  • Today, home mortgage defaults remain near zero, but commercial real estate loans are collapsing with 100% losses.

  • Non-bank financial institutions hold over $1.2 trillion in loans — and $4 trillion in unused credit — leaving systemic exposure that dwarfs 2008.

The Fed admits in its own FOMC minutes that it doesn’t fully understand the risks of shrinking reserves. Yet it presses on — a reckless gamble that could trigger another 2018-style sell-off, or worse.


Crypto Distraction, Real Risk in the Dollar

Washington panders to the crypto lobby while dismissing the dollar’s decline. But Whalen is blunt:

  • Bitcoin is a “passing fancy,” not a foundation of wealth.

  • Asian investors may speculate in crypto, but they buy gold and real estate for true protection.

  • The push to weaken the dollar — openly discussed by officials — is accelerating de-dollarization.

The result? Americans are left with mounting inflation, volatile markets, and a banking system stretched to the brink.


Housing and Banking Echo 2008

While 2008 was triggered by subprime mortgages, today’s fragility comes from a different angle:

  • The Fed inflated home prices by 40% during COVID through reckless QE.

  • Whalen sees a coming housing correction — not as catastrophic as 2008, but enough to wipe out trillions in household wealth.

  • Meanwhile, dealer banks like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs face structural flaws eerily similar to those seen in past crises.

Whalen warns: momentum-driven stocks, overvalued IPOs, and private equity unloads are red flags of a system running on fumes.


Gold & Silver: Wealth Preservation Amid Crisis

As confidence in fiat currencies erodes, physical gold and silver remain the ultimate hedge:

  • Gold is now recognized as a reserve asset and collateral worldwide.

  • Unlike crypto or Treasuries, gold is a tangible asset that cannot be printed or defaulted on.

  • In times of banking crisis, gold and silver preserve wealth when paper promises collapse.

History shows that when the dollar falters, gold rises. This cycle is no different.


Conclusion

The U.S. financial system is entering a dangerous phase:

  • 100% loan losses in commercial real estate

  • A Fed blindly shrinking its balance sheet

  • De-dollarization accelerating as central banks stockpile gold

Whalen’s warning is clear: the U.S. is on the brink of a banking crisis that could rival past financial shocks. For those relying on the dollar and Wall Street for safety, the risks have never been greater.

Now is the time to rethink wealth preservation — before the next domino falls.


About ITM Trading

ITM Trading has over 28 years of experience helping clients safeguard their wealth through personalized strategies built on physical gold and silver. Our team of experts delivers research-backed guidance tailored to today’s economic threats.

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