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$1.3T CRE MELTDOWN Sparks Bank Crisis the Fed Can’t Contain

Taylor Kenney - ITM Trading Sep 9, 2025

U.S. banks are on the brink. Bail-ins are now legal and the commercial real estate crash could trigger the next financial seizure.

Could Your Savings Be Used to Save the Banks?

Between a collapsing commercial real estate market, vanishing liquidity buffers, and a Federal Reserve tightening into fragility, the U.S. financial system is on the verge of a reset. And this time, your money isn’t just at risk from inflation—it could be confiscated outright.

Commercial Real Estate: The Trigger Hiding in Plain Sight

There’s over $1 trillion in commercial real estate loans coming due this year. These were financed at ultra-low rates of 2–3%, but borrowers now face refinancing at rates double or triple that. The outcome is predictable:

  • Office delinquencies have soared to 11.7%, exceeding 2008 levels
  • Demand for brick-and-mortar space continues to crater
  • Banks are extending loans, not resolving them—a “delay and pray” strategy

This silent crisis is being covered up with creative accounting and backdoor funding—but it won’t stay buried forever.

Vanishing Liquidity: The Reverse Repo Red Flag

The reverse repo facility, once holding $2.5 trillion, is now near zero.

Why? Because the Treasury is flooding the market with short-term debt, offering yields more attractive than the Fed’s facility. That means:

  • Money market funds are moving away from the Fed
  • The “liquidity buffer” for banks is drying up fast
  • We’re entering a stress-test scenario with no safety net

This lack of liquidity is happening just as commercial real estate cracks begin to widen.

Community Banks in the Crosshairs

Over half of all commercial real estate debt is held by regional and community banks. These institutions are not “too big to fail” — they are too small to be saved publicly, and too exposed to survive privately.

Even more disturbing:

  • A majority of multifamily loans are backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, i.e., taxpayer risk
  • The exposure has more than doubled in recent years
  • Quiet bailouts are already underway to mask this risk

And when the system finally buckles? Don’t expect a bailout. Expect a bail-in.

Bank Bail-Ins: Legal, Prepared, and Unstoppable

The FDIC has quietly established the framework for bank bail-ins. This means when a bank fails, your deposits could be used to recapitalize the institution.

Evidence:

  • FDIC officials have been caught on camera discussing the need to hide this from the public to “avoid a panic”
  • Bail-ins have already happened in other countries like Cyprus and Italy
  • The U.S. legal framework is already in place

This is no longer theoretical. Banks are undercapitalized, the dominoes are falling, and the depositors will be the last line of defense.

Why Gold and Silver Are Immune to Bail-Ins

When your dollars are inside the system, they are subject to its rules, risks, and failures.

Physical gold and silver, on the other hand, are:

  • Tangible assets held outside the banking system
  • Immune to inflationary bailouts and confiscatory bail-ins
  • Proven tools for wealth preservation during financial repression

Gold vs. dollar? One is real money. The other is a claim on a broken promise.

In times of systemic risk, gold and silver offer:

  • Zero counterparty risk
  • Historical protection during banking crises
  • Long-term value in a world of fiat erosion

The System Will Protect Itself—Not You

This isn’t about panic. It’s about preparation.

The data points are flashing red: record delinquencies, zero liquidity buffers, legalized bail-ins, and a Fed boxed in by its own policy errors. Whether they choose to devalue your dollars or confiscate them directly, the outcome is the same: your savings are on the line.

Don’t wait for the next headline to be your wake-up call. Take your wealth off the table before the system reclaims it.

About ITM Trading

ITM Trading has over 28 years of experience helping clients safeguard their wealth through personalized strategies built on physical gold and silver. Our team of experts delivers research-backed guidance tailored to today’s economic threats.

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SOURCES:

https://fortune.com/2023/06/26/commercial-real-estate-office-downturn-outlook-goldman-sachs-morgan-stanley-ubs-pwc-bofa/

https://www.businessinsider.com/commercial-real-estate-crash-property-price-drop-defaults-interest-rates-2024-1

https://fortune.com/2023/11/20/economist-who-predicted-2008-housing-crash-says-commercial-real-estate-bubble-will-burst/

https://www.businessinsider.com/office-commercial-real-estate-cre-crash-2008-gfc-delinquency-vacancy-2024-3

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-21/commercial-real-estate-distress-is-spreading-credit-weekly

Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to Record 11.7%, Much Worse than Financial Crisis Peak. Multifamily Delinquencies also Spike

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/real-estate-crash-commercial-property-prices-investing-mortgage-backed-securities-2024-8

https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr1130.html

https://www.ft.com/content/b7597b71-8764-4093-bf0f-b6df6ad3c307

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD

https://www.barrons.com/articles/t-bill-sales-reverse-repos-liquidity-a6426caf

https://www.ft.com/content/4055340f-fda6-4b19-b64b-fc5d357450e2

https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/29/business/regional-banks-cre-exposure-explainer

https://www.mpamag.com/us/specialty/commercial/regional-banks-face-growing-cre-losses/521270

https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/fannie-mae-freddie-mac-conservatorship/

https://www.ft.com/content/91c75c9e-4f58-4452-8ed1-3d16322ba02c

https://www.euromoney.com/article/27bjsstsqxhkmh1znxfst/banking/lebanon-depositor-bail-in-may-be-the-only-way-to-save-the-banking-sector/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanlewis/2013/05/03/the-cyprus-bank-bail-in-is-another-crony-bankster-scam/

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