“Gold is essentially front-running a pullback in the U.S. stock market by year-end,” says Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. In this interview with Daniela Cambone, McGlone explains why he believes gold is “sniffing out” the endgame of an overheated U.S. equity market, trading at unsustainable levels. He points to the $40 trillion U.S. debt load and peak long bond yields as growing signs of macroeconomic stress. “If it [gold] starts staying above $3,500 an ounce, that’s a sign that the stock market is probably tilting over.”

What If 1933 Is Happening Again?

Gold is up over 30% this year.

Crude oil? Flatlined.

The last time we saw this kind of massive spread between gold and crude was during FDR’s gold confiscation and dollar devaluation in 1933. That historical echo isn’t just eerie—it’s a warning.

As Mike McGlone of Bloomberg Intelligence told Daniela Cambone, the current divergence between gold and oil is not normal. It’s flashing signals about deflation, geopolitical instability, and a brewing crisis in the global economy. If you think the financial system is sound, think again.

Gold vs Crude Oil: An Alarming Divergence

In June 2025, the gold-to-oil ratio surged to 56 barrels of WTI per ounce of gold. Historically, that number averages closer to 20:1. The only comparable periods? 1933… and 2020, at the height of the COVID crisis.

• 1933: Gold was forcibly confiscated. The dollar was devalued.
• 2020: A pandemic-triggered meltdown and historic money printing.
• 2025: Gold is surging. Crude oil is stagnant. What comes next?

McGlone warns this divergence signals a “bouncing bear market” for crude and an extended bull market for gold.

“It’s not a good sign for the global economy.”

What Gold’s Surge Is Really Telling Us

Everyone’s bullish on gold right now—central banks, institutions, analysts.

But retail investors still haven’t piled in. That’s a huge signal: we’re only in the early innings of this gold bull run.

Why gold is rising:

• Massive central bank buying (especially China and emerging markets)
• Geopolitical chaos (Russia, Iran, Israel)
• $40 trillion U.S. debt load
• Declining U.S. dollar and weakening stock market

Gold ETFs just saw their first major inflows since 2020. Even as Wall Street touts new highs, gold is sniffing out systemic fragility beneath the surface.

Could the Stock Market Crack Be Next?

McGlone believes gold is front-running a pullback in U.S. equities:

• S&P trading at 2x GDP
• Long bond yields peaked at 5.15% in May
• Treasury market signaling too much debt

“We’ve reached the endgame. Gold is figuring it out.”

Wall Street is still partying. But smart money is rotating into safe-haven assets.

Gold & Silver: Your Wealth Preservation Strategy

This is why gold and silver matter more than ever.

When the dollar is devaluing, debt is exploding, and markets are mispriced, only physical precious metals offer:

• True wealth preservation
• Tangible assets outside the system
• A proven inflation hedge
• Historical outperformance in crises

Gold isn’t just up. It’s outperforming nearly everything.

Silver and platinum are finally playing catch-up, but gold remains the leader. As central banks continue to buy aggressively, and with the average investor still asleep at the wheel, the window for entry is narrowing.

Conclusion: Watch the Spread, Read the Signals

In 1933, the U.S. ripped gold out of private hands to bail out a broken system.

In 2025, gold is once again sending shockwaves through the markets. Crude oil can’t keep up. The gold-to-oil ratio is screaming “trouble ahead.”

History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes. Are you listening?

About ITM Trading
ITM Trading has over 28 years of experience helping clients safeguard their wealth through personalized strategies built on physical gold and silver. Our team of experts delivers research-backed guidance tailored to today’s economic threats.

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