The Fed Risks Amplifying the Drama, Top Surprises to Watch For in 2024

The Daniela Cambone Show Jan 3, 2024

The 2024 growth outlook leans towards the downside, as indicated by Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute. In an interview with Daniela Cambone, he emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between cyclical and non-cyclical factors when assessing the current economic landscape. Achuthan notes that inflation is a cyclical factor, and as cyclical drivers move downward, any negative shock can have a significant impact.

Achuthan also offers insights into the housing market, suggesting that it might not truly be a seller’s market in 2024. He advises potential buyers to approach purchases strategically, recommending they ‘have a couple of alternatives to play off against each other.’ Regarding the U.S. dollar, he expresses a lack of bullish sentiment in the short term, attributing it to the concerning fiscal deficit. Watch the video to delve deeper into Achuthan’s analysis and discover strategies for safeguarding your wealth in 2024.

CHAPTERS:

00:00 Introduction
01:26 The Fed’s Actions and Soft Landing
04:28 Inflation and the Disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street
08:24 Inflation Cycles and the Risk of Higher Lows
12:34 Housing Market Outlook
16:23 Mortgage Rates and Home Prices
18:48 Treasuries and the 10-Year Treasury Yield
23:09 Global Tensions and Safe Havens
28:44 Words of Wisdom for Investors in 2024

SOURCES:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/lakshmanachuthan/

https://twitter.com/businesscycle

https://www.amazon.com/Beating-Business-Cycle-Predict-Turning/dp/0385509537

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/01/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2019-02-19/federal-reserve-s-first-do-no-harm-policy-is-harmful

https://www.businesscycle.com/

https://www.forbes.com/advisor/mortgages/real-estate/will-housing-market-crash/

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=rocU#

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.DXY

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bill_stone/2022/03/27/the-bond-vigilantes-ride-again/?sh=23a9d38324ad