{"id":38588,"date":"2026-03-09T12:57:55","date_gmt":"2026-03-09T19:57:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.itmtrading.com\/blog\/?p=38588"},"modified":"2026-03-09T12:58:30","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T19:58:30","slug":"duration-is-the-devil-iran-war-gold-oil-stocks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.itmtrading.com\/blog\/duration-is-the-devil-iran-war-gold-oil-stocks\/","title":{"rendered":"What The Biggest Oil Disruption in History Means For Gold Prices"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"528\" data-end=\"588\"><strong data-start=\"528\" data-end=\"588\">Markets don\u2019t just fear war\u2014they fear how long it lasts.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"590\" data-end=\"843\">The <em data-start=\"594\" data-end=\"627\">Iran war impact on gold and oil<\/em> is already rippling through global markets. Oil prices surged above $100 per barrel, stocks dropped, and investors rushed to reassess inflation risks and geopolitical stability.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"845\" data-end=\"922\">But the real question isn\u2019t simply <strong data-start=\"880\" data-end=\"921\">whether conflict will disrupt markets<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"924\" data-end=\"951\">It\u2019s <strong data-start=\"929\" data-end=\"950\">how long it lasts<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"953\" data-end=\"1194\">Because in global markets, <strong data-start=\"980\" data-end=\"1005\">duration is the devil<\/strong>. A short conflict might trigger temporary volatility. A prolonged one could ignite a full-blown commodity supercycle\u2014reshaping inflation, interest rates, and investment strategy for years.<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"1196\" data-end=\"1199\" \/>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"e4t7f1\" data-start=\"1201\" data-end=\"1253\">Oil Shock: The Strait That Controls Global Energy<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1255\" data-end=\"1395\">At the center of the crisis lies one critical choke point: the <strong data-start=\"1318\" data-end=\"1338\">Strait of Hormuz<\/strong>, where a large share of the world\u2019s energy supply flows.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1397\" data-end=\"1514\">If the conflict continues and shipping disruptions persist, the consequences could cascade across the global economy.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1516\" data-end=\"1538\"><strong data-start=\"1516\" data-end=\"1538\">Key risks include:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1540\" data-end=\"1784\">\n<li data-section-id=\"upo2da\" data-start=\"1540\" data-end=\"1589\">\n<p data-start=\"1542\" data-end=\"1589\">Crude oil surging past <strong data-start=\"1565\" data-end=\"1589\">$100\u2013$120 per barrel<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"24ilva\" data-start=\"1590\" data-end=\"1642\">\n<p data-start=\"1592\" data-end=\"1642\">Jet fuel prices climbing even faster than gasoline<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"wc2wxa\" data-start=\"1643\" data-end=\"1691\">\n<p data-start=\"1645\" data-end=\"1691\">Natural gas supply disruptions from the region<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"9g2hzb\" data-start=\"1692\" data-end=\"1743\">\n<p data-start=\"1694\" data-end=\"1743\">Fertilizer shortages affecting global agriculture<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"1fftx7m\" data-start=\"1744\" data-end=\"1784\">\n<p data-start=\"1746\" data-end=\"1784\">Industrial metals supply interruptions<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"1786\" data-end=\"1952\">According to market analysis, even <strong data-start=\"1821\" data-end=\"1865\">10% of global aluminum smelting capacity<\/strong> depends on shipments passing through the region.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1954\" data-end=\"2002\">That means the conflict isn\u2019t just about energy.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2004\" data-end=\"2060\">It\u2019s about <strong data-start=\"2015\" data-end=\"2059\">supply chains across multiple industries<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"2143\" data-end=\"2146\" \/>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"13acms9\" data-start=\"2148\" data-end=\"2185\">Inflation Could Reignite Overnight<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"2187\" data-end=\"2258\">The immediate effect of rising oil prices is already hitting consumers.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2260\" data-end=\"2447\">Gasoline prices have increased roughly <strong data-start=\"2299\" data-end=\"2337\">50 cents per gallon in just a week<\/strong>, highlighting how quickly geopolitical shocks feed into everyday costs.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2449\" data-end=\"2518\">If the conflict continues, the inflation impact could expand rapidly:<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2520\" data-end=\"2551\"><strong data-start=\"2520\" data-end=\"2551\">Potential inflation drivers<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"2553\" data-end=\"2711\">\n<li data-section-id=\"15auquv\" data-start=\"2553\" data-end=\"2582\">\n<p data-start=\"2555\" data-end=\"2582\">Higher transportation costs<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"aymemj\" data-start=\"2583\" data-end=\"2629\">\n<p data-start=\"2585\" data-end=\"2629\">Rising fertilizer prices \u2192 higher food costs<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"mp2nuu\" data-start=\"2630\" data-end=\"2667\">\n<p data-start=\"2632\" data-end=\"2667\">Increased manufacturing input costs<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"1fk5ksg\" data-start=\"2668\" data-end=\"2711\">\n<p data-start=\"2670\" data-end=\"2711\">Elevated energy prices across the economy<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"2713\" data-end=\"2752\">This creates a dangerous feedback loop:<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2754\" data-end=\"2823\"><strong data-start=\"2754\" data-end=\"2823\">War \u2192 Commodities rise \u2192 Inflation spikes \u2192 Central banks trapped<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2825\" data-end=\"2890\">And that could mean <strong data-start=\"2845\" data-end=\"2889\">interest rates staying higher for longer<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"2892\" data-end=\"2895\" \/>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"1p45gd2\" data-start=\"2897\" data-end=\"2954\">The Hidden Market Shift: The End of the AI Stock Boom?<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"2956\" data-end=\"3072\">The timing of the crisis is particularly dangerous because <strong data-start=\"3015\" data-end=\"3071\">U.S. markets were already showing signs of fragility<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3074\" data-end=\"3184\">For years, a handful of mega-cap tech companies powered the market higher. But cracks are beginning to appear.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3186\" data-end=\"3207\">Key concerns include:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"3209\" data-end=\"3346\">\n<li data-section-id=\"182puh\" data-start=\"3209\" data-end=\"3251\">\n<p data-start=\"3211\" data-end=\"3251\">Massive capital spending on data centers<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"10ij3df\" data-start=\"3252\" data-end=\"3305\">\n<p data-start=\"3254\" data-end=\"3305\">Shrinking cash flow for AI infrastructure companies<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"pue7j7\" data-start=\"3306\" data-end=\"3346\">\n<p data-start=\"3308\" data-end=\"3346\">Overconcentration of market leadership<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"3348\" data-end=\"3496\">Some analysts warn that <strong data-start=\"3372\" data-end=\"3457\">nearly half of the S&amp;P 500\u2019s momentum has been tied to the AI infrastructure boom<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3498\" data-end=\"3598\">If that leadership fades while commodities surge, markets could undergo a <strong data-start=\"3572\" data-end=\"3597\">major sector rotation<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3600\" data-end=\"3615\">In other words:<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3617\" data-end=\"3684\"><strong data-start=\"3617\" data-end=\"3684\">Tech dominance fades \u2192 commodities rise \u2192 inflation resurfaces.<\/strong><\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"3686\" data-end=\"3689\" \/>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"17ijns6\" data-start=\"3691\" data-end=\"3740\">The Commodity Bull Market May Just Be Starting<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"3742\" data-end=\"3817\">Even if the conflict subsides, one powerful trend may already be locked in.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3819\" data-end=\"3858\">A new <strong data-start=\"3825\" data-end=\"3857\">global commodity bull market<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3860\" data-end=\"3896\">Several factors support this thesis:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"3898\" data-end=\"4081\">\n<li data-section-id=\"11qtxdw\" data-start=\"3898\" data-end=\"3947\">\n<p data-start=\"3900\" data-end=\"3947\">Strategic oil reserves depleted in recent years<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"zsbv1i\" data-start=\"3948\" data-end=\"3988\">\n<p data-start=\"3950\" data-end=\"3988\">Countries rebuilding energy stockpiles<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"bhknvv\" data-start=\"3989\" data-end=\"4035\">\n<p data-start=\"3991\" data-end=\"4035\">China aggressively expanding energy reserves<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"gfmhsb\" data-start=\"4036\" data-end=\"4081\">\n<p data-start=\"4038\" data-end=\"4081\">Supply chain vulnerabilities exposed by war<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"4083\" data-end=\"4231\">For example, China has reportedly built reserves capable of supplying its refineries for roughly <strong data-start=\"4180\" data-end=\"4192\">200 days<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4233\" data-end=\"4352\">This global stockpiling effort creates a powerful <strong data-start=\"4283\" data-end=\"4315\">floor under commodity prices<\/strong>, even if oil temporarily pulls back.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4354\" data-end=\"4451\">And historically, <strong data-start=\"4372\" data-end=\"4451\">commodity bull markets often coincide with strong moves in gold and silver.<\/strong><\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"4453\" data-end=\"4456\" \/>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"1g0rwf4\" data-start=\"4458\" data-end=\"4517\">Why Gold Remains a Strategic Asset in Geopolitical Chaos<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"4519\" data-end=\"4605\">During geopolitical crises, markets often rediscover the value of <strong data-start=\"4585\" data-end=\"4604\">tangible assets<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4607\" data-end=\"4659\">Gold and silver play a unique role because they are:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"4661\" data-end=\"4771\">\n<li data-section-id=\"1bdndb1\" data-start=\"4661\" data-end=\"4682\">\n<p data-start=\"4663\" data-end=\"4682\"><strong data-start=\"4663\" data-end=\"4682\">Monetary metals<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"1afm4ox\" data-start=\"4683\" data-end=\"4702\">\n<p data-start=\"4685\" data-end=\"4702\"><strong data-start=\"4685\" data-end=\"4702\">Crisis hedges<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"1iqg5jv\" data-start=\"4703\" data-end=\"4729\">\n<p data-start=\"4705\" data-end=\"4729\"><strong data-start=\"4705\" data-end=\"4729\">Inflation protection<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"1a8duiz\" data-start=\"4730\" data-end=\"4771\">\n<p data-start=\"4732\" data-end=\"4771\"><strong data-start=\"4732\" data-end=\"4771\">Assets outside the financial system<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"4773\" data-end=\"5008\">Even when short-term volatility pushes prices around\u2014often due to currency fluctuations or algorithmic trading\u2014the underlying demand for gold tends to increase during unstable geopolitical periods.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"5010\" data-end=\"5076\">Another powerful force supporting gold is <strong data-start=\"5052\" data-end=\"5075\">central bank demand<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"5078\" data-end=\"5180\">Central banks have been major buyers since 2022, helping fuel the current precious metals bull market.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"5182\" data-end=\"5292\">And while some countries may consider selling gold to fund military spending, the broader trend remains clear:<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"5294\" data-end=\"5363\"><strong data-start=\"5294\" data-end=\"5363\">Global diversification away from the U.S. dollar is accelerating.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"5365\" data-end=\"5418\">That shift alone could support gold prices for years.<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"5520\" data-end=\"5523\" \/>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"1d1ylxs\" data-start=\"5525\" data-end=\"5577\">Gold vs. Dollar: The Global Diversification Trend<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"5579\" data-end=\"5700\">Perhaps the most important long-term story unfolding behind the headlines is the quiet shift away from dollar dependence.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"5702\" data-end=\"5746\">Countries across the world are increasingly:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"5748\" data-end=\"5835\">\n<li data-section-id=\"jsh042\" data-start=\"5748\" data-end=\"5771\">\n<p data-start=\"5750\" data-end=\"5771\">Diversifying reserves<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"10r7e5x\" data-start=\"5772\" data-end=\"5798\">\n<p data-start=\"5774\" data-end=\"5798\">Increasing gold holdings<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"xmdgss\" data-start=\"5799\" data-end=\"5835\">\n<p data-start=\"5801\" data-end=\"5835\">Reducing reliance on dollar assets<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"5837\" data-end=\"5894\">Geopolitical conflict tends to <strong data-start=\"5868\" data-end=\"5893\">accelerate this trend<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"5896\" data-end=\"5900\">Why?<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"5902\" data-end=\"5987\">Because sanctions, trade disruptions, and financial warfare highlight a simple truth:<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"5989\" data-end=\"6041\"><strong data-start=\"5989\" data-end=\"6041\">Dollar-based assets come with geopolitical risk.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"6043\" data-end=\"6113\">Gold, by contrast, is <strong data-start=\"6065\" data-end=\"6112\">politically neutral and globally recognized<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"6115\" data-end=\"6229\">This makes it one of the few assets that can function as <strong data-start=\"6172\" data-end=\"6229\">true financial insurance during systemic uncertainty.<\/strong><\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"6264\" data-end=\"6267\" \/>\n<h2 data-section-id=\"1p8d74c\" data-start=\"6269\" data-end=\"6315\">Conclusion: Markets Fear Time More Than War<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"6317\" data-end=\"6362\">History shows that markets can absorb shocks.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"6364\" data-end=\"6417\">What they struggle with is <strong data-start=\"6391\" data-end=\"6416\">prolonged uncertainty<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"6419\" data-end=\"6480\">If the Iran conflict resolves quickly, markets may stabilize.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"6482\" data-end=\"6553\">But if disruptions continue for months, the consequences could include:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"6555\" data-end=\"6673\">\n<li data-section-id=\"1tbmgyi\" data-start=\"6555\" data-end=\"6584\">\n<p data-start=\"6557\" data-end=\"6584\">A sustained commodity surge<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"sjyg5g\" data-start=\"6585\" data-end=\"6614\">\n<p data-start=\"6587\" data-end=\"6614\">Renewed inflation pressures<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"177e7a0\" data-start=\"6615\" data-end=\"6642\">\n<p data-start=\"6617\" data-end=\"6642\">Weakening tech leadership<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"1acpznx\" data-start=\"6643\" data-end=\"6673\">\n<p data-start=\"6645\" data-end=\"6673\">Higher global interest rates<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"6675\" data-end=\"6789\">In that environment, investors often rediscover assets that have endured every financial crisis in modern history.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"6791\" data-end=\"6820\"><strong data-start=\"6791\" data-end=\"6820\">Physical gold and silver.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"6822\" data-end=\"6970\">Because when geopolitical shocks expose the fragility of financial systems, <strong data-start=\"6898\" data-end=\"6970\">tangible assets become more than investments\u2014they become protection.<\/strong><\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"6972\" data-end=\"6975\" \/>\n<h1 data-section-id=\"1pbqgwo\" data-start=\"6977\" data-end=\"6996\">About ITM Trading<\/h1>\n<p data-start=\"6998\" data-end=\"7239\">ITM Trading has over 28 years of experience helping clients safeguard their wealth through personalized strategies built on physical gold and silver. Our team of experts delivers research-backed guidance tailored to today\u2019s economic threats.<\/p>\n<h3 data-section-id=\"3kut8b\" data-start=\"7241\" data-end=\"7285\">THINKING ABOUT PURCHASING GOLD &amp; SILVER?<\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"7287\" data-end=\"7362\">Get expert guidance from our team of analysts with 28+ years of experience.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"7364\" data-end=\"7419\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">&#x1f449; <a href=\"https:\/\/calendly.com\/itmtrading\/500?utm_content=DC05052025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong data-start=\"7367\" data-end=\"7394\">SCHEDULE YOUR CALL HERE<\/strong><\/a> or call <strong data-start=\"7403\" data-end=\"7419\" data-is-last-node=\"\">866-706-9061<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Markets don\u2019t just fear war\u2014they fear how long it lasts. The Iran war impact on gold and oil is already rippling [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":39,"featured_media":38589,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2922],"tags":[3145,3311,4013,7124,8156,8157,8158,8159,8160,8161,8162,8163,8164,8165,8166,8167,8168,8169,8170,8171,8172],"class_list":["post-38588","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-daniela-cambone-show","tag-daniela-cambone-show","tag-gold-price-outlook","tag-stock-market-volatility","tag-private-credit-risks","tag-iran-war-oil-shock","tag-oil-prices-surge","tag-strait-of-hormuz-crisis","tag-commodity-bull-market","tag-inflation-fears-2026","tag-stock-market-selloff","tag-geopolitical-risk-markets","tag-middle-east-conflict-oil","tag-natural-gas-supply-disruption","tag-fertilizer-shortage","tag-aluminum-supply-chain","tag-energy-crisis-impact","tag-investing-during-war","tag-safe-haven-gold","tag-commodities-supercycle","tag-ai-tech-bubble-warning","tag-peter-boockvar-interview"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.itmtrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38588","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.itmtrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.itmtrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.itmtrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/39"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.itmtrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38588"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.itmtrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38588\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":38590,"href":"https:\/\/www.itmtrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38588\/revisions\/38590"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.itmtrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/38589"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.itmtrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38588"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.itmtrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38588"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.itmtrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38588"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}