{"id":37483,"date":"2025-09-01T09:04:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-01T16:04:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.itmtrading.com\/blog\/?p=37483"},"modified":"2025-09-01T09:04:00","modified_gmt":"2025-09-01T16:04:00","slug":"loan-losses-fed-banks-on-brink","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.itmtrading.com\/blog\/loan-losses-fed-banks-on-brink\/","title":{"rendered":"&#x1f6a8; 100% Loan Losses Loom as Fed Shrinks Balance Sheet- Banks on the Brink"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"592\" data-end=\"958\">&#8220;The Fed playing God with the US economy and trying things they weren\u2019t sure would work,&#8221; says Chris Whalen, chairman of Whelan Global Advisors. In today\u2019s interview with Daniela Cambone, Whalen criticizes the Fed\u2019s unconventional monetary policies\u2014particularly the low interest rates and quantitative easing implemented during COVID. Now, the Fed is reversing some of that policy, shrinking its balance sheet and reducing liquidity in the system. Chris warns that the Fed is again experimenting with high-stakes economic levers, creating uncertainty in money markets and increasing the potential for stress in banks and the financial system. &#8220;We\u2019re seeing 100% loss on those [commercial real estate (CRE) and apartment building] loans when they default,&#8221; he adds.<\/p>\n<p>As for protecting investors, he stresses caution and opportunism: &#8220;Look for stability and income\u2014treasuries, preferred stocks, reliable dividend payers. Gold must be a core part of your holdings.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Could we be on the edge of another <strong data-start=\"627\" data-end=\"644\">Lehman moment<\/strong>? Chris Whalen, a seasoned Wall Street insider, warns that banks are now staring at <strong data-start=\"728\" data-end=\"748\">100% loan losses<\/strong> in commercial real estate while the Federal Reserve continues to recklessly shrink its balance sheet. The implications for the U.S. <strong data-start=\"881\" data-end=\"899\">banking crisis<\/strong> and for your retirement savings couldn\u2019t be more urgent.<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"960\" data-end=\"963\" \/>\n<h2 data-start=\"965\" data-end=\"1011\">Central Banks Choose Gold Over Treasuries<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1012\" data-end=\"1175\">For the first time since 1996, <strong data-start=\"1043\" data-end=\"1104\">foreign central banks hold more gold than U.S. Treasuries<\/strong>. That\u2019s not a fluke \u2014 it\u2019s a sign of collapsing trust in the dollar.<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1177\" data-end=\"1415\">\n<li data-start=\"1177\" data-end=\"1250\">\n<p data-start=\"1179\" data-end=\"1250\">Global central banks have been aggressively buying gold for a decade.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1251\" data-end=\"1326\">\n<p data-start=\"1253\" data-end=\"1326\">Gold is now accepted as collateral for swaps, no longer a \u201cdead asset.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1327\" data-end=\"1415\">\n<p data-start=\"1329\" data-end=\"1415\">U.S. governance failures and runaway deficits are accelerating the dollar\u2019s decline.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"1417\" data-end=\"1602\">Whalen warns this shift marks the <strong data-start=\"1451\" data-end=\"1489\">end of the dollar\u2019s \u201cspecial role\u201d<\/strong> as the world\u2019s reserve asset. We\u2019re heading toward a multilateral currency system \u2014 with <strong data-start=\"1579\" data-end=\"1599\">gold at its core<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"1604\" data-end=\"1607\" \/>\n<h2 data-start=\"1609\" data-end=\"1644\">Fed Policy = Banking Time Bomb<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1645\" data-end=\"1763\">The Federal Reserve\u2019s balance sheet reduction is creating hidden risks that few in mainstream finance want to admit.<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1765\" data-end=\"2116\">\n<li data-start=\"1765\" data-end=\"1840\">\n<p data-start=\"1767\" data-end=\"1840\">Banks enjoyed \u201cfree money\u201d during COVID when rates were forced to zero.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1841\" data-end=\"1962\">\n<p data-start=\"1843\" data-end=\"1962\">Today, home mortgage defaults remain near zero, but <strong data-start=\"1895\" data-end=\"1959\">commercial real estate loans are collapsing with 100% losses<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1963\" data-end=\"2116\">\n<p data-start=\"1965\" data-end=\"2116\">Non-bank financial institutions hold over <strong data-start=\"2007\" data-end=\"2033\">$1.2 trillion in loans<\/strong> \u2014 and $4 trillion in unused credit \u2014 leaving systemic exposure that dwarfs 2008.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"2118\" data-end=\"2320\">The Fed admits in its own FOMC minutes that it doesn\u2019t fully understand the risks of shrinking reserves. Yet it presses on \u2014 a reckless gamble that could trigger another 2018-style sell-off, or worse.<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"2322\" data-end=\"2325\" \/>\n<h2 data-start=\"2327\" data-end=\"2375\">Crypto Distraction, Real Risk in the Dollar<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"2376\" data-end=\"2480\">Washington panders to the <strong data-start=\"2402\" data-end=\"2418\">crypto lobby<\/strong> while dismissing the dollar\u2019s decline. But Whalen is blunt:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"2482\" data-end=\"2749\">\n<li data-start=\"2482\" data-end=\"2543\">\n<p data-start=\"2484\" data-end=\"2543\">Bitcoin is a \u201cpassing fancy,\u201d not a foundation of wealth.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2544\" data-end=\"2647\">\n<p data-start=\"2546\" data-end=\"2647\">Asian investors may speculate in crypto, but they buy <strong data-start=\"2600\" data-end=\"2624\">gold and real estate<\/strong> for true protection.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"2648\" data-end=\"2749\">\n<p data-start=\"2650\" data-end=\"2749\">The push to weaken the dollar \u2014 openly discussed by officials \u2014 is accelerating de-dollarization.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"2751\" data-end=\"2875\">The result? Americans are left with mounting inflation, volatile markets, and a <strong data-start=\"2831\" data-end=\"2872\">banking system stretched to the brink<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"2877\" data-end=\"2880\" \/>\n<h2 data-start=\"2882\" data-end=\"2916\">Housing and Banking Echo 2008<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"2917\" data-end=\"3014\">While 2008 was triggered by subprime mortgages, today\u2019s fragility comes from a different angle:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"3016\" data-end=\"3354\">\n<li data-start=\"3016\" data-end=\"3093\">\n<p data-start=\"3018\" data-end=\"3093\">The Fed inflated home prices by <strong data-start=\"3050\" data-end=\"3070\">40% during COVID<\/strong> through reckless QE.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3094\" data-end=\"3226\">\n<p data-start=\"3096\" data-end=\"3226\">Whalen sees a coming <strong data-start=\"3117\" data-end=\"3139\">housing correction<\/strong> \u2014 not as catastrophic as 2008, but enough to wipe out trillions in household wealth.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3227\" data-end=\"3354\">\n<p data-start=\"3229\" data-end=\"3354\">Meanwhile, dealer banks like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs face structural flaws eerily similar to those seen in past crises.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"3356\" data-end=\"3483\">Whalen warns: momentum-driven stocks, overvalued IPOs, and private equity unloads are red flags of a system running on fumes.<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"3485\" data-end=\"3488\" \/>\n<h2 data-start=\"3490\" data-end=\"3541\">Gold &amp; Silver: Wealth Preservation Amid Crisis<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"3542\" data-end=\"3640\">As confidence in fiat currencies erodes, <strong data-start=\"3583\" data-end=\"3637\">physical gold and silver remain the ultimate hedge<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"3642\" data-end=\"3913\">\n<li data-start=\"3642\" data-end=\"3717\">\n<p data-start=\"3644\" data-end=\"3717\">Gold is now recognized as a <strong data-start=\"3672\" data-end=\"3704\">reserve asset and collateral<\/strong> worldwide.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3718\" data-end=\"3819\">\n<p data-start=\"3720\" data-end=\"3819\">Unlike crypto or Treasuries, gold is a <strong data-start=\"3759\" data-end=\"3777\">tangible asset<\/strong> that cannot be printed or defaulted on.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"3820\" data-end=\"3913\">\n<p data-start=\"3822\" data-end=\"3913\">In times of banking crisis, gold and silver preserve wealth when paper promises collapse.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"3915\" data-end=\"4000\">History shows that when the dollar falters, gold rises. This cycle is no different.<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"4002\" data-end=\"4005\" \/>\n<h2 data-start=\"4007\" data-end=\"4022\">Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"4023\" data-end=\"4081\">The U.S. financial system is entering a dangerous phase:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"4082\" data-end=\"4244\">\n<li data-start=\"4082\" data-end=\"4132\">\n<p data-start=\"4084\" data-end=\"4132\"><strong data-start=\"4084\" data-end=\"4104\">100% loan losses<\/strong> in commercial real estate<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"4133\" data-end=\"4178\">\n<p data-start=\"4135\" data-end=\"4178\">A Fed blindly shrinking its balance sheet<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"4179\" data-end=\"4244\">\n<p data-start=\"4181\" data-end=\"4244\">De-dollarization accelerating as central banks stockpile gold<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"4246\" data-end=\"4458\">Whalen\u2019s warning is clear: the U.S. is on the brink of a <strong data-start=\"4303\" data-end=\"4321\">banking crisis<\/strong> that could rival past financial shocks. For those relying on the dollar and Wall Street for safety, the risks have never been greater.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4460\" data-end=\"4540\">Now is the time to rethink wealth preservation \u2014 before the next domino falls.<\/p>\n<hr data-start=\"4542\" data-end=\"4545\" \/>\n<h2 data-start=\"4547\" data-end=\"4569\">About ITM Trading<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"4570\" data-end=\"4813\">ITM Trading has over 28 years of experience helping clients safeguard their wealth through personalized strategies built on physical gold and silver. Our team of experts delivers research-backed guidance tailored to today\u2019s economic threats.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4815\" data-end=\"4995\"><strong data-start=\"4815\" data-end=\"4859\">THINKING ABOUT PURCHASING GOLD &amp; SILVER?<\/strong><br data-start=\"4859\" data-end=\"4862\" \/>Get expert guidance from our team of analysts with 28+ years of experience.<br data-start=\"4937\" data-end=\"4940\" \/>&#x1f449; [<a href=\"https:\/\/calendly.com\/itmtrading\/500?utm_content=DC05052025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">SCHEDULE YOUR CALL HERE<\/a>] or call <strong data-start=\"4977\" data-end=\"4993\">866-706-9061<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;The Fed playing God with the US economy and trying things they weren\u2019t sure would work,&#8221; says Chris Whalen, chairman of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":39,"featured_media":37484,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2922],"tags":[3145,4700,7025,7026,7027,7028,7029,7030,7031,7032,7033,7034,7035,7036,7037,7038,7039,7040],"class_list":["post-37483","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-daniela-cambone-show","tag-daniela-cambone-show","tag-financial-crisis-warning","tag-chris-whalen-interview","tag-fed-balance-sheet-reduction","tag-quantitative-tightening-risks","tag-federal-reserve-monetary-policy","tag-banking-system-stress","tag-commercial-real-estate-loan-defaults","tag-100-percent-loan-losses","tag-banks-on-the-brink","tag-u-s-economy-risks","tag-money-market-instability","tag-interest-rate-impact","tag-treasury-bonds-safe-haven","tag-dividend-stocks-investing","tag-gold-as-core-holding","tag-fed-covid-policies","tag-quantitative-easing-consequences"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.itmtrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37483","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.itmtrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.itmtrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.itmtrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/39"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.itmtrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37483"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.itmtrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37483\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37485,"href":"https:\/\/www.itmtrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37483\/revisions\/37485"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.itmtrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/37484"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.itmtrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37483"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.itmtrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37483"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.itmtrading.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37483"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}