The Bloom Just Fell Off The Economic Rose, Again
Without trying to be ominous, a survey released on Friday the 13th (cue the thunder) indicated that consumer sentiment dropped to the lowest level since April of this year. It appears Americans are concerned about higher interest rates and the impact that will have on housing as well as growth in general.
In the words of the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s survey director, Richard Curtin, the drop was due to “growing concerns that higher interest rates will diminish the pace of economic growth as well as job gains,†and went on to say that a “cooling housing market has also affected homeowners’ sense of personal financial progress.â€
The interest rate on home loans has risen dramatically in the last few months in anticipation of a Federal Reserve tapering off from the massive bond buying the Fed has done to encourage the struggling economy. This expectation is witnessed by a decline home loan applications and marked drop off of mortgage refinancing.
The seemingly ever-looming debt ceiling is another issue for the congress to try and deal with as nimbly as possible. No small task for a group that is worldly renowned for it un-nimbleness. The image of a sumo wrestler in a tutu, waiting in the wings to perform the Nutcracker comes to mind. Ouch!
“If changes in monetary and fiscal policies …. act to slow economic growth, declining confidence could lengthen and deepen the slowdown,†Curtin remarked, but went on with optimistic appraisal that public opinions might bounce back if the sun comes up and evaporates our economic bogymen. Caution here is recommended in trying to calculate the likelihood of that eventuality.
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