Concern Grows as U.K. faces Triple Dip Recession
As the triple threat of Triple Dip Recession grows for the United Kingdom, it becomes increasingly obvious to Ed Balls, the Shadow Finance Minister, that the government needs to ratchet it up and maybe more than a notch, to encourage growth in the stumbling economy.
In the last few months the country was granted a breather from the shrinking GDP (gross domestic product) but now an independent economic predictor sees a downturn for the fourth quarter.
The dire warning came on Wednesday during the briefing from Finance Minister, George Osborne on his budget update. This was followed by calls from those critical of his severe austerity program to place more attention on supporting growth.
A fourth quarter downturn of 0.1 percent in 2012 was the forecast by the Budget of Office Responsibility. On top of that, a decline was noted on a Markit survey made available on Wednesday indicating a decline in the services sector in November.
“If you’re in a hole, stop digging,†Ed Balls said Thursday, calling on Osborne to help grow the economy and enable people back into the workforce.
“The debt dynamics of a country like ours are fundamentally about growth… until you get growth back into this economy, in my view, you’re going to continue to see the fiscal position under great pressure,†he stated.
“Going into next year I think this is a very concerning situation.â€
In view of the most current figures, the service sector was in line with an economy falling back into recession and the third worst since April 2009.
At the Autumn Statement, while maintaining his plan for austerity, Finance Minister George Osborne reported a “fiscally neutral†budget. The U.K.’s prized credit rating of AAA is for the present unchanged, but the credit rating agency, Fitch, has warned that due to Osborne’s statement that the United Kingdom will fail to hit its lower debt goal, that rating is endangered.
In spite of the Finance Minister declaring that the country was on target, Osborne declared that reductions would be needed as late as 2018 even as public borrowing and debt numbers were revised higher.
“People look at the U.K. and say: here’s a country that’s got a grip on its problems, that’s confronting its problems and I think they saw further evidence of that yesterday,†he remarked.
“We’ve got to go on commanding the confidence of the world that we can deal with our debts. That is reflected in the very very low interest rates that we get at the moment for gilts. And of course that’s the test – how much are investors willing to pay for the debt?â€
Nigel Green CEO of the Devere Group is cautious that Osborne’s course might be harmful in the longer run.
“In his speech, George Osborne was clear that the economic outlook remains bleak and that austerity would have to extend well into the next parliament,†he stated.
“This message is helping to fuel a bond bubble as investors, who are prudently concerned about volatility, pile further into bonds.â€
This remains sound council as we weigh the possibilities of a triple dip recession.