Gareth Soloway, expert technical analyst, provides an insightful gold price forecast for 2023-2024. Plus stock chart analysis on Tesla, Costco and Russell 2000 and more!

CHAPTERS:
0:00 Gareth Soloway
1:12 2024 Gold
4:19 Gold Data
6:51 Silver Squeeze
8:02 Bitcoin
9:56 Promising Charts
12:45 Tesla
14:23 Hold it, Own it

TRANSCRIPT FROM VIDEO:
Daniela:
Hi, this is Daniela Cambone and welcome back to the Daniela Cambone show here on ITM Trading. If you are new to the show, welcome, welcome. We have plenty of incredible content for you. And my guest today has brought, of course, his chair, if you followed his career, and his incredible chart. So please welcome Gareth Soloway of verifiedinvesting.com and inthemoneystocks.com. Gareth, so good to see you. Welcome to the new show.

Gareth Soloway:
Thank you so much for having me on your new show, this is wonderful.

Daniela:
Yeah, fantastic. Well, I was super excited to get you on, especially, you know, we thought it was going to be a quiet, thanksgiving long weekend. And I want to ask you how it went for you, but there was no shortage of excitement, especially in the precious metals market. We could talk gold, silver, and of, and of course, uh, the cryptocurrencies. Uh, so let me ask you first and foremost, are you all turquied out?

Gareth Soloway:
To be honest, yes. I ordered, we did takeout and we ordered two turkeys and we’re still working on it. So it’s, I’m turkeyed out for another year, I think.

Daniela:
All right. Okay. Well, let’s talk about the excitement in gold prices here. I mean, as we’re speaking, we’re at a six month high. Those who have covered gold know that the tail end of the year can always hold explosion and fireworks. So never discount gold, I think is the lesson, but look, your charts don’t lie. So I’d love for you, if you could, you know, start us off with kind of a three month outlook if you want, or whatever outlook you think makes sense. of what we could expect with the price action. I mean, are we going to be disappointed soon? Or do you think this could hold here, Gareth?

Gareth Soloway:
No, I actually think this is the real deal for gold. So we’re at a point where the consolidation that we’ve seen now for the last two years, actually the last three years from the highs in 2020, it looks like we’re going to re attack that high at around 2080. And historically, if you look at data sets, when you hit a trend line three times, it usually doesn’t break out once you get to the fourth or the fifth time, you usually do see the breakout. So what we can see here is you had you had the first hit right here, the second hit right here. third hit right here and we’re coming up underneath for the fourth hit. So I do think this is the real deal. It also creates a inverse head and shoulder pattern formation here. Let me see if I can draw it on my chart here. So we have this sort of pattern formation, inverse head and shoulder patterns are very, very bullish. And they usually break out in kind and you can see shoulder head and shoulder. And the beautiful thing about this is we can actually do a measured move to figure out where gold is going to go in 2024. Should this pattern break out? And essentially, you would gain this distance here $460. So if we look at $460, it takes us actually north of 2500 in 2024. And that would complete this head and shoulders breakout pattern. So there you have it there. 2024 target price is just above 2500.

Daniela:
Well, I was going to say, I remember at the start of 2023, you said gold would be the best performing asset. And is that your forecast? I know we’ll bring you back for the outlook, but as we’re heading into 2024, are you sticking to that?

Gareth Soloway:
Yeah, I do think 2024 gold is continuing to be the best performing asset. It wasn’t obviously this year, we saw Bitcoin doing much, much better. That one had obviously a huge bounce after a massive decline.

Daniela:
Right.

Gareth Soloway:
I think safe wise gold has been the stellar asset. Like if you’re looking to protect your capital also gaining, then gold has been phenomenal. But certainly we’ve seen tech stocks remain buoyant. And obviously Bitcoin do very, very well. But I think again, in terms of safety and hedging gold is the place to be for 2025, where I do think excuse me 2024, where I do think again, that equities, there’s a lot of risk there. If we hit a recession, we know that the yield curve when the yield curve on inverts, which we haven’t seen yet, that’s when the recession happens. We also know historically that when the Fed actually starts cutting rates usually markets historically sell off. So if we are going to get rate cuts in 2024, that’s not necessarily the best thing for the stock market.

Daniela:
Well, okay, so interesting point. And I don’t know if you can overlay the S&P on the gold chart, which would be great to see, because just over the weekend, Goldman Sachs, Uber bullish gold, saying the shine is returning to gold. Now those could argue the shine never went away, but they’re bullish gold. But I also thought it was interesting that Deutsche Bank came out bullish on the S&P, saying they expect in 2024 it to gain more than 11% and reach… a record next year. So

Gareth Soloway:
Yeah.

Daniela:
two interesting forecasts, you know, two different banks, were, you know, how do you see it? I mean, the S&P that strong next year? Again, I know you mentioned the, it depends on what the Fed will do here.

Gareth Soloway:
Yeah, so I mean, it does depend on what the Fed will do. But again, to me, I’m seeing economic data that just continues to slowly get weaker. And if we look at the 2007 into 2008 period in the stock market, what we saw was very strong economic numbers, month after month after month, then slightly weaker, slightly weaker, and it fell off a cliff. And I think the same thing is going to happen here, where yes, you probably will see rate cuts in 2024 by the Federal Reserve. But my guess is it’s coming where investors start to be frantic like can the Fed cut enough? Are they cutting too slow? Are we going to see inflation? We’re back all of these fears are going to come to the forefront in 2024. Even when the Fed starts cutting rates, and I actually think that drives stock prices lower because remember, if the Fed is being forced to cut rates, it tells you what is going on in the economy and it’s not good if they’re being forced to

Daniela:
So based on the charts, you’re seeing how high could gold go in 2024.

Gareth Soloway:
Yeah, so that 25 just above 2500 is what I’m seeing. And that’s that measured move of that inverse head and shoulders playing out. So again, I would look for that to happen. And I think the combination of, you know, the dollars continuing to get weaker as the Fed comes back in play for printing, a de dollarization slow and steady, but it is it is slowly occurring. The drive for the safety of gold, the hedge of gold, the volatility or lack thereof for gold investments, all of those probably do drive up the price of gold. And I think again, inflation to me, we’ve come down into the mid to low threes now. But again, we’re not at 2%. And the Fed again, are they going to be forced to cut rates before we hit 2%? And does that then trigger another wave of inflation where they have to be very, very concerned about? And I think that’s what Jerome Powell is worried about. He doesn’t want to repeat the issues that occurred in the 70s and 80s. And he said that multiple times, and we could see that happening.

Daniela:
Well said and I agree with you on that point, Gareth. Can we fire in a silver chart now for all the silver bugs out there, Gareth? It was a great weekend. Three

Gareth Soloway:
Yes.

Daniela:
months high. Silver squeeze was trending again. I couldn’t believe my eyes.

Gareth Soloway:
Yeah, so the silver chart is looking good. It’s not as good as the gold chart. The gold chart is very close to the all time highs as we know that triple kind of quadruple top. Silver though is making a beautiful run, right. And by the way, you mentioned this before too. But like once you see institutions start talking about gold, it makes you a little nervous. Well, same thing

Daniela:
Right.

Gareth Soloway:
when you start seeing trending silver squeeze or whatever, it makes me a little nervous that things are getting a little ahead of themselves. The one thing I say is you have a very clear trend line here to watch, right? So it doesn’t take a genius to just say, okay, well, this is your trend line, we’re still below it. So therefore, silver has not broken out. If we get above this level here, then silver actually can break out. And I think that’s going to be the key. So so again, basically above $25 per ounce on silver, I think that’s where you start to really talk about $30 as being a real possibility in 2024.

Daniela:
So, you know, we always kind of talk about this trifecta of gold silver. I’m just curious if we could just look at Bitcoin here because the price did eye 40,000. You know, this rally did take many by surprise amid a record, you know, hash rate. Does Bitcoin’s future look promising here as we’re about to start a new year? And you know, the crypto landscape, I mean, this is a separate comment for you, Gareth, continues to just be played by, you know, gray clouds. I mean, we saw the news of… CZU over Binance stepping down amid money laundering accusations. So your take on Bitcoin and then I think the crypto complex as a whole here.

Gareth Soloway:
Yeah, so just looking purely at the charts, let’s start with the charts, and then we’ll kind of expand out. But basically,

Daniela:
Yep.

Gareth Soloway:
what we have is this up sloping trend or channel or wedge pattern, essentially very clear trend line with the lows, like every time we hit this low trend line, we’re getting a bounce. And then we’re stalling right out of the 38,000 marker here. So the key is going to be is which way does this break now again, probability wise, I’m a data person. So if we look at about you know, let’s say 100 of this pattern formation, I would say about 75 to 80 of them will break to the upside. So you do favor the upside here. Now, whether that’s a spot ETF approval or whatnot, we don’t really know yet. But ultimately, the pattern generally will play out to the upside. And that would be a break of 38,000. So if we don’t, and let’s say we do come down and take out, let’s say 36,000, then you have trouble for Bitcoin. But I think Bitcoin itself It continues to be an asset that even though we’ve seen an all coin bull market short term bull market here, I still think it starts to take money away from the altcoins where you have investors that are just saying, okay, the spot ETF is the start institutions continuing to pile money in here. Bitcoin is the major

Daniela:
Right.

Gareth Soloway:
player here. So I do think that continues but right now the pattern is bullish as long as we don’t take out 36,000 to the downside.

Daniela:
Curious now if you could share a chart that you think shows a lot of promise, anything catching your attention. I know you’ve been tweeting about McDonald’s, Chipotle, potato, potato.

Gareth Soloway:
Yeah, I’ll show a couple

Daniela:
Uh,

Gareth Soloway:
of these. So, so,

Daniela:
yeah.

Gareth Soloway:
so the first one is Chipotle and these are short. So so let’s be clear on that these I’m actually thinking pull back in the near term. Notice the extended move incredible move in Chipotle. There’s a trend line here that’s really remarkable. In fact, it goes all the way back to 2007. So the high

Daniela:
Yeah.

Gareth Soloway:
of the bull market in 07 connected to the bull market high of 2021 connects through the bull market high of 2023. And we’re right up into that same level. So Based on charts, we should see some sort of pullback here, you know, whether it’s a couple hundred dollars or not, you know, we’ll have to see but that one definitely is in play. McDonald’s is another one. If we look at this McDonald’s chart, if we go to the daily, you have this trend line that we’re very quickly approaching, right. So the lows of the March 2020 COVID low connected through these lows here. And in fact, if we just adjust that it needs to be adjusted ever so slightly down. you can see we are into that as well. So McDonald’s should also pull back. So these are two opportunities on the downside for

Daniela:
Nice.

Gareth Soloway:
investors on a swing trade basis. I will say this, if you want to look at something that could be bullish here, and this would go along with lower rates, right? If we think about okay, the Fed may cut rates next

Daniela:
Yes,

Gareth Soloway:
year.

Daniela:
please.

Gareth Soloway:
The Russell, the Russell would be one that I think you look at here. You’ve seen a big drop, we know that the regional banks got crushed earlier in 2023. You’ve now looking with looks like you’ve bottomed out with lower rates, the smaller stocks in the Russell should do well. Remember, it’s all about borrowing their small stocks for a reason, because they have to borrow money, they’re not profitable yet. So lower rates is really important to these players also to the banks. And you actually have a bullish consolidation pattern starting here, which tells us you could be headed up pretty nicely here. So so the Russell would be on the long side, I think Chipotle and McDonald’s would be a fade.

Daniela:
Can I ask two more, two more? I’m curious to get your thoughts on Costco, because I feel this is a holiday favorite.

Gareth Soloway:
Yep. So let’s take a look. So so the first thing and I have former trend lines on here, which is cool, because we can see how it actually played out, we had this wedge pattern here. And look at when it broke out, it really broke out beautifully. Now, the first thing that I see here is that we’re coming into what will be a technical double top. So you might have a little bit more upside, but we’re really coming close to that upper multi year or actually, I think it’s the all time high on Costco. So that would be a fade hitting a double top much like gold hitting it the first time gold hit that to 2080 level, we know it pulled back. And so the same thing, the same methodology would be applied to this chart, where you would expect to pull back off that double top. So it might have a little bit more upside, but then you’d start to look to fade it.

Daniela:
Curious about Tesla because as we know, Elon Musk, one of the fiercest critics of the Fed, critical of their rate hike, saying that’s what put pressure on Tesla stock. He’s also been warning about a recession for the longest time now because of the Fed rate hikes. How’s Tesla looking?

Gareth Soloway:
Yeah, the Tesla chart looks weak, to be honest. So again, you may see a short term, there’s a little bullish consolidation here. But what we can see is you had this wedge pattern here, and we broke down through that, which means this area here is massive, massive resistance. So again, look for resistance here. If price gets through, that’s a different story. But short term, you have to think that Tesla probably continues to the downside. And again, if you think about it, fundamentally, it makes a lot of sense. We know that they’ve cut their prices on their cars multiple, multiple times. everyone’s producing EVs at this point. I mean, again, prices are just going to continue to remain under pressure in terms of margins. And then you throw out the factor that if we do are going into recession, like even Elon Musk is saying, what does that mean for the ability to for people to afford new cars, let alone EVs, right? So again, these are a lot of things working against a stock that has kind of still a ridiculous valid valuation. I mean, it’s got the Elon valuation. So I mean, he gets a premium. But at some point, is

Daniela:
Right.

Gareth Soloway:
Tesla really a car company? And again, people could argue that, but 99.9% of their revenues are from sales of cars.

Daniela:
Fantastic roundup here. I mean, Gareth, you know I could just stay on with you forever. I just love your charts, love your education. And I love how you said gold is really the real deal right now, which

Gareth Soloway:
It

Daniela:
I’m

Gareth Soloway:
is.

Daniela:
sure many in my audience are thrilled to hear.

Gareth Soloway:
Can I can I add one more thing in about gold? It’s not technical, it’s fundamental. But

Daniela:
Yes!

Gareth Soloway:
I think it’s the most important thing to remember on gold is this is that if you look at what central banks have been buying over the last year, they have been loading the boat on gold, they are remember, they are the ones that are the their fingers on the printing presses. So if the people printing the money are buying gold, think about it logically, it tells you everything you need to know about where

Daniela:
Exactly.

Gareth Soloway:
gold is heading.

Daniela:
Elinette, Zhang and I, we’re just having a conversation that, you know, we have to do, watch what they do and not what they say.

Gareth Soloway:
That’s right.

Daniela:
So the question is, why are they loading up on gold? And if anyone has questions or is interested in investing in gold, and if you haven’t invested in gold, you should speak to my wonderful colleagues at ITM Trading. Gareth, you’re going to come back from my Outlook 2024, please.

Gareth Soloway:
I would love to, I’d be honored to, thank you.

Daniela:
Thank you, Gareth, and thank you all for watching. I just always learn something new from Gareth. Hope you enjoyed the content. Please stay tuned to the Daniela Cambone show here on ITM Trading, and you can sign up to receive all alerts and newsletters from us at Danielacambone.com. That’s it for me. Thanks for watching. You’re the best to do it, Gareth.